Gann Pivot Indicator

Gann Intraday Pivot
  • The indicator is based on W.D. Gann Methodology and Grid chart system customized for the modern market with a simplistic approach.
  • It is designed for Scalping to Intraday Trading. A complete tool with Customizable Price and Time Support and Resistance level.
  • The indicator shows day trend strength in advance with the start of the day. Indicator plots buy/sell signals on charts (Subject to consider with market price action), also the current trade.
  • Indicator plots Daily and Hourly Pivots. Also, Custom Pivots based with 4 calculating points, from Current day high / Last Day High / Current Day Low / Last Day Low.
  • The indicator also plots time pivots which indicate ideal time for a major trend change in the market. ( Subject to consider with market price action.)
  • Indicator plots Gann Master Grid chart layout for advanced analysis.
  • Best Usage: 1 Minute to 15 Minutes charts, All Instruments
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SFX Intraday Planetary Line Indicator

Space Time Intraday Planetary Line Indicator
  • Indicator plots planetary lines without using any CSV file or any kind of data fetching from 3rd party software or Internet!
  • It has inbuilt astronomical calculation being the first of its kind in the MQL indicator history.
  • Planet Degree might differ from 0.5-1.0 degrees than actual. NASA quality.
  • Indicator plots planetary lines based on Custom-able Planetary Coordinates ( Geocentric | Heliocentric ), Planetary Zodiac Method Tropical | Sidereal (Vedic), scaling for plotting planetary lines for Sun, Moon, Mars, Mercury, Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto, North Lunar node and South Lunar Node and average of 5 and 8 planets planetary lines. Plots planetary aspect price lines with planets and aspects selection. Also plots Mundane Aspects, Moon Ingress Timing with its Trend strength (Strongest, Stronger, Weak, Continuation, Reversal) Hora lines. All inputs are customizable.
  • Dashboard data shows the daily trend for individual instruments along with effective planet name in Advance. Also the indicator per deg scale. Draws buy/sell signals on the chart with alerts. (Subject to consider with market price actions)
  • Best usage: 1 Minute to 15M chart. (for scalping to day trading)
  • Instruments: All instruments including FX pairs, metals, and indices. Simply adjust the scale accordingly.
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SFX Multi Pair Trend Dashboard Indicator

Multi Pair Trend Dashboard Indicator
  • Indicator show signals for 15 Instruments/ Pairs (custom-able) based on a selected time frame.
  • User can select Maximum 8 indicators according to their choice among 14 available indicators and oscillators with changeable inputs.
  • Indicator Automatically Adjusts its columns and rows based on the user input and can plot multiple Dashboard on the Same chart.
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SFX Risk Reward Indicator

Risk Reward Indicator
  • Shows Risk, Reward and Trailed position monetary value for all active open orders.
  • Here locked profit represents trailed positions.
  • For ECN broker indicator counts order commission into the calculation to show the actual monetary value for a trade.
  • If any order doesn't have any stop loss, then it shows the account free margin in the risk field.
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Trade Duration Indicator

Trade Duration Indicator
  • The indicator shows current active trades (including pending orders) time duration in Minutes, Seconds and Hours.
  • Time duration means how long the order is active in the market, how long the order is running.
  • The indicator shows Trade Lot size, Instrument Symbol, Trading serial number chronologically.
  • Indicator refreshes its data on the chart according to the order activity.
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Thursday, July 24, 2014

How To Calculate Expected Rate of Return of a Trading System [Updated]

This is very common formula used in terms of portfolio analysis.
The formula for expected rate of return E (R) = ∑ Ri pi
Where Ri is the return from stock under state i, pi is the probability that states i occurs and n is the number of possible states.

Now, How can we use this formula in our trading system to find expected return.

For example you have system A, where you use stop loss @ 10 points & Take profit @ 20 points.  Winning rate of your system is 50% .

So your expected return for the system would be,

(probability of loss * Stop loss ) +  (probability of win * take profit)

in this case,
( 0.50 * (-10)) + (0.50*20) = 5 points

So if you make 20 trades per month with 1 standard lot ($10 per point, in case of Forex trading), then your expected rate of return in this case will be,  (5 * 10) * 20 = $ 1000.

Click to view large
Above picture is a screenshot of my calculator, which I made using the formula.
Here is another way of calculating expected return with perfect lot size with the help of "Multiple Losing Streak Probability Calculator".
Click to view large
Here you just need to add the consecutive loss manually from the "Multiple losing streak calculator" & this calculator will automatically calculate  ideal lot size & expected return with it. Here trial trade can be use as total number of trade in a given period of time. Say 45 trades in a month. All custom able according to the need of a trader, including the average SL & TP.

You can use multiple system for finding total expected return.
In that case the general formula is ,

E(Rx) = (R1 x P1) + (R2 x P2) + (R3 x P3) + …….+ (Rn x Pn)

You can add Standard Deviation & variance for further analysis in case of multiple systems return analysis.

Here is another example of using same formula for binary option trades,

Considering 21 trading days in a month.

Updated [27/3/2016]: There is another version of it, formula taken from Van Tharp's Position Sizing book. It can be use for monetary value of trades.

Expectancy = [{(Average Profit)*(Probability of winning)} - {(Average Loss) * (Probability of Losing)}]/Average Risk Amount

Here Average Risk amount is actually the total profit/loss divided by the total number of trades. You can do the calculation by yourself if you have an account statement already or any trade samples available to count expectancy.

Suppose you have trading system, considering all brokerage cost or spread, it have average profit of 15 pips, average loss of 7 pips, winning probability is 60% & average risk per trade is 10 pips, under any given number of trades. Then Expectancy would be 4.52 pips. That means under a certain sample size, it has an expectancy of making 4.52 pips with each trade.

Avg Win in pipsAvg Win RateAvg Loss in PipsAvg Loss RateAvg RiskExpectancy
1560%740%104.52

Average risk is the amount of pips you put as stop loss when you enter trade, divided by the no of trades. I have shown it here in terms of pips. You can use it with monetary value also for any market.
Good luck!

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